Demographic. Demographic dynamics in San MIguel de Allende.

Demographic dynamics and plan of population 2002 in the municipality of San Miguel de Allende, Guanajuato, Mexico. Mejía Bocanegra, Georgina; Morals Tirado, Arturo; Pérez Mendoza, Ithamar; et al.
San Miguel de Allende, Guanajuato, September of the 2002
Municipal Council of population 2002.
President: Lic. Oscar Thin Stream, Municipal President . • Secretary: Lic. Jose Garci'a Beltrán, Secretary of the H. City council. • Technical secretary: Ing. Germa'n Ramirez Mayor, Director of Social and Rural Development. Advisors: - Dra. Georgina Mejía Bocanegra, Secretariat of Health of Guanajuato. - Mrs. Courteous Stream Socorro, Director of the DIF - Ing. Arturo Morales Thrown, Environment Director and Ecology. - Mrs. Irma Rooms, Director of C.A.S.A.A.C. - Teacher Sylvia Van DijK, Director of F.A.I., A.C. - Lic. Francisco Javier Ramirez Agundis, U.S.A.E.G. - Dr. Ramon Chiquete, Regidor of the H. City council. - Dra. Ma. Guadalupe Torres M., Representing of the COESPO Gto. Prologue. The sustainable Development of the Municipality of Allende, Guanajuato, cannot be understood without the foundation to know and to include/understand the dynamics of human population in he himself. It is for that reason that in the processes of sustainable planning of economic, social, cultural and ecological the activities of government, of the municipality, the Municipal Plan of Population must of being a permanent datum point, as much for its sustenance and definition of strategies, like for its constant evaluation. Introduction. Organized Mexico this political and administratively in a federal governmental system which is based on the participation of three you order of government: the federal, state and the policeman. Historically to existed a strong centralization of economic, political, social and cultural the life, reason why many of the times as much the decision making for the actions of government, as the definition of programs and development plans have come, almost of exclusive way, of the capital of the country, which has left spaces extremely reduced, and sometimes null, for the participation of the states and the local governments. The efforts to attack the causes and the effects of the excessive centralization in which the country was developed from half of the last century, go back in the middle of the Seventies. In different occasions, programs have been tried political and to fortify or to reanimate the intergovernmental relations based on the federal system that consecrates the political constitution of the Mexican United States. The population policy has not been isolated of this effort of decentralization and, from the constitution of the state advice of population in 1984, it has come advancing in the incorporation from the regional particularitities to the demographic planning and in the fortification of the participation of the local authorities within the framework of the strategy raised in the national program of population 1995-2000, reason why the National Council of Population made an effort to increase the participation of the state and municipal governments with strict attachment to the respect of his autonomy. In demographic matter, from 1974 it is counted in Mexico with the general law of population, in which it seats the central intention of the national policy of population and the creation of the National Council of Población (CONAPO) like person in charge of the demographic planning of the country settles down from 1977, year in which conapo I elaborate the first national program of population. One of the main challenges of the population policy has been to establish the bases for the creation and the fortification of the Municipal Councils of Población (COMUPO), in order to manage that the planning of the municipal development incorporates the demographic elements, at the same time to cause the citizen participation as important support for the diffusion of the education and taking of conscience of the society in the matter of population.
Within this strategy it is identified to the municipality like the first instance of the citizens to demand the satisfaction of its basic necessities and like the suitable space where they must come together the planning, the intersectorial action and the social participation. As of 1998 the State Council of Población (COESPO) of our organization has occurred to the task of impelling the conformation and the fortification of the Municipal Councils of Population, the instance of the municipal government destined to coordinate efforts to identify and to take care of problematic the demographic premises and to orient to the sectors in the decision making; Instance where representations of the sector come together I publish, private and social which they interact in thematic the population ones, whose primary target is to impel the integration of the demographic criteria to the planning of the economic and social development in the municipality and to increase the impact of actions of education in population towards the communities. In the passage of this experience of joint work they have been adapted the state strategies to the own necessities of each locality, at the same time have come recovering the contributions of each municipality, benefitting with it to the rest of the localities and purifying therefore the operative process of COMUPO' s. From the date before mentioned, to this moment, the approval of the city councils for the conformation of its COMUPO' s in 21 municipalities has been obtained, of which they are installed and operating 13 regularly. In our municipality the conformation of the Municipal Council of Population was made for the first time the 26 of April of year 2002. They participate in the social and governmental representations related to the population subjects (to see directory in this same document). The dependencies that conformed the Commission of I diagnose sesionaron arduously with the purpose of reuniting and to define the statistical data which they would make possible the establishment of I diagnose the population premises. As resulting from this effort, the Municipal Council of Population has drafted the present document, whose purpose is to support the diffusion and the taking of social conscience with respect to the population subjects in the locality, as well as the high-priority challenges to take care of in the medium term, which made possible the generation of an operative program of interinstitutional action that reditúe benefits to its population and helps in the improvement of the quality of life and local coexistence; this the intention is and upper desire of the present work that is to disposition of all the interested ones in the population subject.
Antecedents National Plan of Population 11 of July of the 2002 The life expectancy of 102,4 million of Mexican is of 76,2 years, which delay are increased to 77,9 years in the 2006, date in which the country will have 107,6 million inhabitants Mexican that lives more time, than they have less children and than they use more contraceptives. This it is the scene. The inequality of the conditions of life that there is in the country imposes One of the main challenges: to reduce of to 1,4 1,7 percents the annual rate of growth of the Mexican population. The same disparity appears in the natality indices. For example, in 290 dispersed rural municipalities by all the country the women have in average four children, although the national rate is of 2,4, and sexenio In the 2005 is hoped by the end of to reduce it to 2,1, to reach a level of fecundity of 2,1 With the fulfillment of that goal that we have paid attention, we will be able to take care of the demands of health, education, use, house of more better than 107 million of Mexican. Vicente Fox. In the matter of contraceptives, the program emphasizes that at the present time the 70 percent of the women in fertile age uses methods to prevent pregnancies, index that is hoped to increase to a 74 percent for the 2006. The effort in the countryside is due to multiply, because there only a 50 percent of the women has today access to contraceptive methods. Elena Zúñiga Herrera, informed that the program is based on eight specific objectives, of which emphasizes the vicious breaking out of an encirclement between poverty and I leave behind demographic, the anticipation to the social demands derived from the change in the structure by age and the impulse of a legal, worthy, safe and ordered system migratory with the United States. “Of not being applied the public policies necessary to improve the conditions of life of the population, the next Mexico decades one will become a country of old and poor.” Hiram Hernandez (Soc. Sociodemográfica).

Presidential speech Vicente Fox Pines 11 of Julio of the 2002 Extracts of the speech of President Vicente Fox in the First Ordinary Session of the National Council of Population 2002 and Presentation of the National Program of Population 2001-2006 In the beginning of century XXI it is a fact that we walked with firm step towards the stabilization of our demographic dynamics of long term. At the present time, the greater increase in the rate of population is concentrated in the marginalized zones. Unfortunately, this process does not go single, they accompany high indices by mortality and one accelerated destruction of the natural resources. For that reason, like it has been indicated here, one of the main challenges that we have as nation is to break the perverse circle between accelerated population increase, environmental degradation and poverty. The best way to surpass this challenge is fortifying the capacities and extending the opportunities of the families, specially, poorest. New social strategy which we have started up and that we are impelling aggressively, that is the strategy WITH You. In fact, the motto of the World-wide Day of the Population of 2002, that today we are celebrating, is indeed Action Against the Poverty: To harness, To protect, To educate. I mean to them also, that in Mexico today we have a weapon very important to surpass the inequalities and the marginalization. That weapon is what we have called the demographic bond that already was indicated here Another urgent challenge is to impel one better territorial distribution of the population. One of the crucial demographic challenges that we have is to improve the conditions of life and for protecting the rights of and the working emigrants, like its families, where she wants that they are. The fulfillment of its goals is a collective responsibility.

Diagnosis.
General demography:
The greater increase in the population occurred in the decade of 80s (42,60% of increase). We have duplicated the population in less than 30 years and we will duplicate it before the 2035 The tendency of last the 5 years (13,56%), says to us that in this decade we will grow 27%, reaching 167.102 inhabitants in 2010 A high number of population in productive state exists We tend to be a population with less infants and greater number of greater adults Tendency of greater number of women than men. New social and cultural relation of the social nuclei. Slight tendency to the cultural change by the women.

Fecundity:
The TFG in the municipality has diminished, mainly from 97 to 98. Nevertheless the TFG is 35,17% superior to the one of the State We are slightly underneath the state indices, nevertheless, Six of each 10 mothers (59,8%) are smaller of 30 years and 3,5 of each 10 are smaller of 25 years. While in the state, almost 6 of 10 women present/display prevalence in the use of contraceptive methods… in municipality only 3 of 10 they present/display prevalence in the use of contraceptive methods and the tendency has diminished from 1995 to 1998.

Mortality:
It lacks the comparative one in the State and against the national data For the analysis of tendencies the historical one of these cups is necessary The data by urban and rural zone and location of communities are not determined It does not exist a correlation between diseases of the liver and alcoholism It does not exist correlation between diseases of the liver and accidents congenital Malformations and chromosomic anomalies represent the second cause of infantile death. It does not exist chromosomic correlation between the congenital malformations and anomalies with number of children by mother, pregnancies in adolescents, age of the mother and father and endogamia. Lack to regionalizar the data. The acute respiratory infections are the main cause of prescholastic death The congenital malformations and chromosomic anomalies represent a problem of long term towards mortality or attention of by life many inhabitants, with the attention necessity to which they present/display the problem and to their near relatives or beings the accidents and the aggressions (homicides) are the main causes of death of children and adolescents in scholastic age. Lack to deepen in so that and to review tendencies. The correlation between diseases of the liver and the ingestion of spirits need Lack to regionalizar this situation of diseases of the liver, to sectorizar them and to differentiate them very socioeconomically. • Lack to correlate the diseases of the liver with accidents • Lack to regionalizar the problems of tumors by geographic area and productive activity does not exist correlation between mortality and nutrition of the adults Lack specificity on deaths by tumors (that class of tumors) Correlation between diabetes and habits of sugar consumption does not exist. In relation to the other municipalities, Beyond it has an average degree.

Migration:
Lack to specify plus the diagnosis in the matter of migration of urban countryside to and number of generated total migrantes of the municipality in relation to the State total. 6,5 emigrants by each 1000 residents of the municipality of Beyond exist (0,65%) We are below the state average of 7,07/1000 residents. We are in the second State place with 179 localities and 18,74% with respect to other localities. Said from another form, in the State of Guanajuato, 2 of each 10 migrantes they come from communities of the Municipality of Beyond.

Marginalization:
1 of each 6 adults greater to 15 years is illiterate. 2 of each 5 greater ones of 15 years did not complete their primary one. 1 of each 3 inhabitants occupies house without drainage or sanitary service. 1 of each 2 lives in localities smaller to 5,000. 1 of each 13 inhabitants occupies house without electrical energy. 1 of each 6 inhabitants occupies houses without tubed water. 1 of each 2 inhabitants occupies houses with some degree of hacinamiento. 1 of each 6 inhabitants occupies house with earth floor. Beyond it heads the contribution of PEA in the North - Northeast of the State. More than 2/3 parts of the population it is maintained by the Economically Active Population of the Municipality.

General missions of the municipal plan of population 2003.
To break the perverse circle between population increase and environmental deterioration. To obtain in the long term, stability in demographic dynamics. To reduce the increase in the rates of population of the marginalized zones. To reduce the mortality indices, mainly between the vulnerable groups and the accelerated degradation of the resources. To fortify the capacities and opportunities of the families of the Municipality. To order and to distribute the population territorially. To take care of and to improve the condition of life of the migrantes and its families. To involve to the three sectors of the population in the answer the demographic challenges of the Municipality. To make converge the Municipal Plan of Population with the Plan of Government and the Plan of Sustainable Development.

High-priority challenges (in 2003) to execute a municipal plan of population.
To establish in October of a 2002 program of activities to manage and to obtain before December of a 2002 Annual Operative Plan, like platform for a plan to 5 years in the 2003. To need the diagnosis the demographic dynamics of the Municipality, with the information partner - demographic of the rural communities. To project the next tendencies to future in the 25 years counting on alternating scenes (pessimistic and wished) To analyze sistémicamente population dynamics to define strategies and programs of short, medium and long term. To begin to spread the demographic information of the Municipality To manage before December of the 2002, the resources necessary to take care of the challenges in the matter of population. Monitorear permanently the demographic indices and to fit of cross-sectional way, the general policies of government.

Strategies (that considered in 2003 and they were never carried out).
Of October to November to determine the sources of diagnosis in the municipality To establish a cronogram to December in one first stage to collect information diagnoses, to order it, to analyze it and to generate tendencies. Of January to March of the 2003, to generate a minimum plan of population to 5 years. To establish a cronogram of activities and works to December of the 2002, giving exit to the strategies already raised in the works of the COMUPO

Propose actions (… in the 2003 and not carried out to date).
1. i) To establish goals and procedures to diminish the TFG in next the 5 years.
2. i) To foment activities in adolescents II) To extend the space between pregnancies.
3. i) Greater information II) more aggressive campaigns III) campaigns of financing to institutions that show to greater effectiveness in the promotion of contraceptive methods IV) Conflict with PROGRESSES V) Education and incentives.
4. i) to differentiate the data in rural and urban the II) to regionalizar the incidence of tumors in regions (use of pesticidas) III) to regionalizar the diabetes and diseases of heart IV) to correlate diseases of the heart with diabetes
5. i) Socioeconomic diagnoses of endogamia and censuses and diagnoses II) diffusion of this problematic one, III) approach with Human rights IV correlation of congenital malformations and chromosomic anomalies with other sociodemográficos indicators
6. i) To establish the correlation between diseases of the liver and the ingestion of spirits II) to regionalizar this situation of diseases of the liver, III) to sectoralizar them and IV) to differentiate them very socioeconomically. IV) To correlate the diseases of the liver with accidents v) To establish the transversalidad with the Subcommittee of Municipal Health I saw) regionalizar the problems of tumors by geographic area and vii) by productive activity
7. I) campaigns of nutricional education for adults and minors., II) not to neglect to groups of more than 60 years.
8. i) Diagnótico of migration by community, II) update of the census.
9. i) to identify in these communities the reasons of the migration, II) To identify the present motivations, III) the places of migration by community, IV) the centers of attraction to the migration and their processes, v) the supports and connections to make.

Specified actions:
1. i) To establish goals and procedures to diminish the TFG in next the 5 years. GOAL: To reduce the TFG (156.4), 11.57/anual: 2004 144,83 2005 133,26 2006 121,69 2007 110,12 2008 98.55
1. i) To establish goals and procedures to diminish the TFG in next the 5 years. PROCEDURE: Promotoría of the sector Health, DIF, DiDeSoR, clubs on watch, ONGs, secondary etc in groups of students of in periodic form (2 times by semester) Promotoría in groups of Promotoría opportunities and consejalía in the sector health To generate promotoría in all the centers of medical attention
2. i) To foment activities in adolescents in next the 5 years. PROCEDURE: Bimonthly information in leagues and sport associations quarterly public Tables in public seats in Sundays. To identify and to generate information tables cyclical. Qualification for promoters of work centers, study or recreation. Tables of discussion in electronic means of communication 2.ii) To extend the space between pregnancies. PROCEDURE: Consultation in work centers, study, or recreation, about the restlessness and espectativas to fulfill of the young people To generate bonds with the responsible instances to offer opportunities of development to the young people so that they count on goals that promote the space between pregnancies To generate with jóvene the campaigns of diffusion of kindness for the development of mothers, parents and children, to extend the space between pregnancies
3. i) Greater information PROCEDURE as of Agosto 2003: To generate information centers publishes in public libraries and the biennial events public To generate a site of Internet of the COMUPO of Beyond Establishing the bonds of demographic information To manage the centers information public cybernetics with the page of the COMUPO of Beyond 3.ii) more aggressive campaigns PROCEDURE as of July of the 2003: To both manage bimonthly tables of debate in the two local radio stations and local TV channels. To in center manage the installation of health of a videograbadora monitor exclusive and which they project these subjects Installation of a monitor and videograbadora in the events quarterly public 3.iii) campaigns of financing to institutions that show to greater effectiveness in the promotion of contraceptive methods PROCEDURE as of August: To count on a data bank of the potential institutions of financing To generate a bank of projects to finance To establish for the COMUPO of Beyond a seat for a coordinator and manager of these activities 3. IV) Conflict with social Programs PROCEDURE as of October of 2003 Proponer a forum with the existing COMUPOS in the State to discuss among others, this one point. To generate the proposal corresponding for the Congress of the State and the State Executive: 3. V) Education and incentives. PROCEDURE as of Agosto 2003: To participate in the Municipal Council of education to develop this point.
4. i) to differentiate the data in rural and urban the II) to regionalizar the incidence of tumors in regions (use of pesticidas) III) to regionalizar the diabetes and diseases of heart IV) to correlate diseases of the heart with diabetes PROCEDURE as of Agosto 2003: Storing of the data of the different sources of intelligence comparative Analysis by veracity, FODA, sistémica Priorización. Forum for consultation Pursuit and semester monitoreo
5. i) Socioeconomic diagnoses of endogamia and censuses and diagnoses II) diffusion of this problematic one. III) approach with Human rights IV chromosomic correlation of congenital malformations and anomalies with other sociodemográficos indicators PROCEDURE as of Agosto 2003: Storing of the data of the different sources of intelligence comparative Analysis by veracity, FODA, To prioritize in sistémica form. Forum for consultation.
6. i) Socioeconomic diagnoses of endogamia and censuses and diagnoses II) diffusion of this problemáticaiii) approach with Human rights IV chromosomic correlation of congenital malformations and anomalies with other sociodemográficos indicators PROCEDURE from Agsto 2003: Storing of the data of the different sources of intelligence comparative Analysis by veracity, FODA, sistémica Priorización. Forum for consultation Pursuit and semester monitoreo Promotoría and consejalía in centers of medical attention
7. I) campaigns of nutricional education for adults and minors., II) not to neglect to groups of more than 60 years PROCEDURE as of October 2003: Storing of the data of the different sources of intelligence comparative Analysis by veracity, FODA, sistémica Priorización. Forum for consultation Pursuit and semester monitoreo.

San Miguel de Allende, Guanajuato 18 of September of the 2002 Revision: Dra. Georgina Mejía Bocanegra Technical secretary of the Secretariat of Health in Beyond
Edition: Ing. Jose Arturo Morales Tirado, Director of Environment and Ecology in the Municipality of Allende
Format: Lic. Ithamar Perez Mendoza Coordinator of Municipalización of the COESPO Guanajuato